US Inbound International Travel Declines 12% as Experts Push Recovery Timeline to 2029
As uncertainty looms over the U.S. economy, international travel to the United States experienced a notable decline in March 2025. Reports indicate a nearly 12% drop in inbound travelers compared to the previous year, leading economists to revise their expectations for a return to pre-pandemic travel levels, now forecasting recovery by 2029. ## Current Economic Environment
During a recent webinar titled "Trump & the Travel Industry," Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, addressed the issues affecting the travel landscape. "Our pre-inauguration forecast expected international travel to nearly fully recover in 2025 to 2019 levels," Sacks stated. "We’re now extending that timeline to 2029," reflecting the significant economic losses facing the industry.
The possibility of an incoming recession further complicates the travel sector’s recovery. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, acknowledged the ongoing debates surrounding the economy’s stability but remains cautiously optimistic. "If we get through the rest of this year without a recession, then we might avoid one for the next 12 to 18 months," he noted.
Factors Influencing Travel Decline
Sacks outlined multiple interconnected factors impacting the U.S. economy, highlighting tariffs as a primary cause of market uncertainty. Current tariffs have not peaked, creating rising costs across various goods, which could begin to show significant inflation by mid-year. "There’s nowhere to hide," Sweet remarked, warning that price increases could reach nearly 10% due to the tariffs’ effects. The strained trade relationships, particularly with China, pose challenges for businesses dependent on global supply chains.
Sacks expressed concerns about the broader implications of tariffs on global sentiment toward travel to the U.S., stating that travel behaviors are changing in response to both rhetoric and actions by U.S. leadership. A recent study indicated that while 83% of Americans plan to travel in the next year, 80% intend to modify their travel habits based on current issues, with many opting for closer destinations.
Domestic vs. International Travel Trends
Despite the ongoing decline in international visitors, domestic travel is expected to exhibit resilience. As Americans potentially shift their travel plans closer to home, Sacks noted that the decrease in international travel would not be fully offset by increased domestic travel. "The losses inbound will be significantly greater than the pullback of outbound [travel]," he explained.
The National Travel and Tourism Office reported that overseas arrivals dropped by approximately 11.6% in March, underscoring the seriousness of the situation for the travel industry.
Looking Ahead: Economic Outlook
While initial predictions indicated U.S. GDP growth of around 2% for 2025, recent estimates have decreased to approximately 1.2%. Surprisingly, businesses continue to invest and hire at a stable pace, signaling that consumer spending remains robust, at least for now. "You don’t have to look too far to find evidence that the economy is not in a recession," Sweet remarked, citing a low unemployment rate of 4% and ongoing job creation.
Even if a recession emerges, it will likely differ significantly from previous economic downturns, such as those seen during the pandemic or the financial crisis of 2008. Sweet expressed confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. "Even with a bit of a lull, 2026 is going to be a much better year," he concluded.
As the U.S. navigates a complex economic landscape marked by uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior, the implications for international travel remain significant, warranting close attention from industry stakeholders.
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