CBO Estimates That GOP Medicaid Plan Could Leave 7.6 Million Uninsured
By Nathaniel Weixel
May 13, 2025
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released preliminary estimates indicating that a portion of the House GOP’s proposed Medicaid reforms could result in 7.6 million people losing their health coverage. This comes as Congress prepares to review and modify the proposed legislation, which is seen as crucial for advancing President Trump’s domestic agenda.
Details of the Proposal
The CBO’s analysis highlights that the GOP’s Medicaid reform could ultimately lead to 10.3 million people losing their Medicaid coverage by 2034. The implications of this plan would mean that the number of uninsured individuals would increase, significantly impacting public health and access to medical care.
The estimates include 1.4 million individuals who lack verified citizenship and would be removed from Medicaid, alongside 4.8 million people who would lose their coverage due to new work requirements mandated by the proposal.
Financial Implications
The changes proposed by the Republican party aim to achieve an estimated $625 billion savings over a decade. The legislation seeks to find at least $880 billion in savings. The greatest portion of these savings stems from implementing federal work requirements, which the GOP estimates would save approximately $301 billion over seven years. This provision necessitates that childless adults aged 19 to 64 demonstrate they are working, attending school, or volunteering for at least 80 hours a month.
Despite these projected savings, experts have noted that the majority of Medicaid beneficiaries are already engaged in employment. The introduction of work requirements imposes additional paperwork and could potentially undermine access to care for many who are already in need.
Policy Changes and Timeline
The GOP proposal also aims to reverse Biden-era policies regarding Medicaid eligibility determinations, which could save nearly $163 billion. Furthermore, a freeze on new provider taxes designed to support state financing of Medicaid programs is projected to save roughly $87 billion.
Most of the coverage losses associated with the proposed plan would take place after the 2026 midterm elections, with the work requirements slated to come into effect in 2028. Republicans have justified these changes by asserting that the reforms aim to sustain Medicaid for those who truly need assistance, while arguing that the current system has been burdened by unnecessary spending on "able-bodied" individuals and undocumented migrants.
Implications for the Future
As the House committee moves forward with markup sessions for the legislation, this proposal remains under close scrutiny. The anticipated impact on millions of American families raises crucial questions about the future affordability and accessibility of healthcare in the U.S. As health care continues to be a pivotal issue, stakeholders from various sectors will watch how this legislation unfolds and its potential effects on those reliant on Medicaid services.
For future updates, stay tuned to our coverage of this evolving story and its implications for health policy and American citizens.
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