Has International Travel to the U.S. Really Collapsed?
By Josh Holder, Niraj Chokshi, and Samuel Granados
April 30, 2025
Reports of a steep decline in international travel to the United States have surfaced amid a tense global climate marked by a trade war and visa issues. Many suggest that the current U.S. administration’s policies have made America less welcoming to foreign visitors. However, recent analysis indicates that while specific trends exist, overall travel to the U.S. has remained relatively stable in 2025. ### A Look at the Numbers
According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, international arrivals at U.S. airports have shown a varied pattern this year. Statistics indicate a modest decline of 1.5% in arrivals from Europe and 2% from Asia, while bookings from Canada have experienced a significant downturn of 21%.
In March 2025, international arrivals dropped more than 10% compared to March 2024. This decline largely stemmed from the late arrival of Easter this year, which shifted the typical travel window for European visitors. Recent data suggests that the travel spike around the Easter holiday was on par with prior years.
Seasonal Travel Dynamics
Travel trends indicate that many international travelers are still planning summer vacations in the United States, despite notable frictions. Interest from Canadian travelers has diminished, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and aggressive political rhetoric that some Canadians feel have alienated them.
The travel industry heavily relies on Canadian tourists, who constitute about 25% of all foreign visitors. The sharp 21% decline in their summer travel bookings poses significant challenges for businesses in popular destinations such as Florida and New York.
Conversely, ticket sales from other regions remain relatively resilient, with an overall decline of just 2% from previous years outside of Canada.
Factors Influencing Travel Sentiment
Several factors could account for these mixed travel signals. Many international trips are planned months ahead, making cancellations less likely. For travelers who may feel disenfranchised by U.S. policies, the logistical commitment of international travel may override their immediate sentiments.
Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst, noted that travelers often proceed with existing plans despite negative political narratives.
Airlines have reported strong international flight sales and expressed confidence in the sector’s resilience. Although some airlines noted weaker sales for incoming travelers, United Airlines has overall characterized international business as robust.
Bookings reveal inconsistencies within different regions. For example, while growth continues from countries like Japan, some European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, have seen substantial decreases in summer bookings.
The Impact of Politics and Economics
The interplay of politics and economics plays a crucial role in shaping travelers’ decisions. While political sentiment may impact travel preferences, financial conditions and currency fluctuations often weigh more heavily.
The Canadian boycott of U.S. travel appears to reflect a direct response to U.S. policies. This sentiment is evident in sharp declines in border crossings, with car travel dropping significantly after prominent political statements were made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In March, crossings at major border points like Niagara Falls plummeted 42%, while the border between Vancouver and Seattle saw a 48% decrease.
A Shift in Travel Patterns
Despite lowered travel to the U.S. from Canada, many Canadians are not abandoning travel altogether; they are simply opting for domestic destinations instead. Data reveals a 6% increase in domestic summer bookings among Canadian travelers.
Steve Solomon, chief commercial officer at the Airlines Reporting Corporation, remarked on this trend of shifting travel preferences. People are choosing to travel domestically rather than venturing to the United States, reflecting broader changes that may stem from both sentiment and practical considerations.
Conclusion
While the current landscape of international travel to the United States appears challenging, it remains complex and dynamic. Despite political tensions and economic factors affecting visitor numbers, the overall volume of travelers indicates that many are still eager to visit. The travel industry faces uncertainties, but it continues to navigate a market full of evolving traveler behavior and preferences. As summer approaches, the situation remains fluid, with many travelers making plans closer to their intended travel dates.
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